The Price of Tomorrow: Deflation, Abundance, and the Future of Everything

In his groundbreaking book, The Price of Tomorrow, Jeff Booth throws a wrench into our understanding of economics. He argues that the future holds not inflation, the historical norm, but a period of relentless deflation driven by unstoppable technological progress. This deflation, far from being a sign of economic weakness, is the key to an abundant future where scarcity becomes a relic of the past.

Booth’s central thesis hinges on the concept of the “sigmoid function curve of technology.” This S-shaped curve depicts the typical lifecycle of a technology. Initially, there’s slow growth as the technology is developed and refined. Then comes a period of explosive advancement, where efficiency and capabilities soar. Finally, the curve flattens as the technology reaches maturity and further improvements become incremental. Booth argues that we are on the precipice of a period of exponential technological progress, propelling us up the steep slope of the sigmoid curve across numerous fields – automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, and beyond.

These advancements won’t just make our gadgets cooler; they’ll fundamentally change how we produce goods and services. Imagine factories staffed by tireless robots churning out products with unmatched efficiency. Picture self-driving vehicles seamlessly navigating our roads, reducing transportation costs. Consider information readily available at your fingertips, negating the need for expensive education or research materials. This is the deflationary future Booth envisions – a future where the cost of production plummets, making many goods and services practically free.

But wait, isn’t deflation a bad thing? Traditionally, falling prices have been associated with economic depression. Booth challenges this notion. He argues that historical deflation often resulted from a scarcity of resources, like gold or silver used as currency. In this future, however, deflation is caused by abundance – an overproduction of goods and services due to technological prowess. It’s a sign of progress, not economic weakness.

The problem? Our current economic systems, built on the twin pillars of debt and inflation, are ill-equipped to handle this dramatic shift. We rely on credit to fuel economic growth, and rising prices encourage investment and spending. In a deflationary world, these mechanisms falter. Debts become increasingly burdensome, and the incentive to invest in assets that constantly lose value diminishes.

Booth doesn’t shy away from painting a picture of potential economic turbulence as we navigate this transition. He warns of potential social unrest as jobs disappear due to automation and the value of existing assets erodes. However, he remains optimistic.

The key, he argues, lies in adapting to this new reality. We need to fundamentally re-evaluate how we measure value and distribute resources in an abundant world. Perhaps traditional economic indicators like GDP will no longer suffice. Focus might shift from consumption to value creation, encouraging innovation and problem-solving to address new challenges and opportunities.

The Price of Tomorrow is more than just a call to arms for economic reform; it’s a wake-up call for society as a whole. Booth compels us to rethink our assumptions about work, wealth, and even the very meaning of progress. Here are some key takeaways from his work:

• Deflation is our friend: Don’t fear falling prices; embrace them as a sign of progress and a gateway to abundance.
• Our economic models need an upgrade: The systems that fueled growth in the past may not be suitable for a world of ever-increasing efficiency.
• Shift focus from consumption to creation: As basic needs become readily available, human ingenuity will be directed towards solving new problems and creating new value.
• Prepare for disruption: Technological advancements will trigger job displacement and societal changes. We need to equip ourselves with the skills and adaptability to thrive in this new landscape.

The Price of Tomorrow is not without its critics. Some argue that Booth underestimates the challenges of transitioning to a deflationary world. Others question whether technological progress will be as rapid and widespread as he predicts. However, the book’s core message – that technology is fundamentally altering the economic landscape – is undeniable. By prompting us to confront these changes head-on, Booth offers a valuable roadmap towards navigating an uncharted future filled with both challenges and immense possibilities.

Whether you agree with Booth’s specific predictions or not, The Price of Tomorrow is a thought-provoking read that will force you to reconsider your assumptions about the future of economics and society. It’s a must-read for anyone interested in understanding the profound impact technology will have on our lives in the years to come.